'The EPS camp feels assertiveness will help the AIADMK keep the BJP's seat-share ambitions to the minimum,' observes N Sathiya Moorthy.
The Congress has revoked Buta Singh's expulsion and assigned him to hold back-channel talks with Jayalalithaa and Mayawati.
The likes of Sengottaiyan can help Vijay navigate it better and faster -- but not necessarily to his goal, which is farther, and can move towards or away from him as well in the weeks and months to come, points out N Sathiya Moorthy.
Reaffirming his unflinching loyalty to his jailed leader All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam supremo Jayalalithaa, newly sworn in Tamil Nadu Chief Minister O Panneerselvam on Monday chose not to enter the designated chamber for the head of state at the secretariat but function from his erstwhile Minister's office.
AIADMK leader Edappadi K Palaniswami is under pressure from his party as his unclear stand on the BJP alliance has brought back fears among party workers that the party may lose its identity, be forced into an unwanted coalition, and be taken over by the BJP later, observes N Sathiya Moorthy.
O Panneerselvam took over as the chief minister of Tamil Nadu on Monday, two days after All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam chief J Jayalalithaa was forced to step down after being convicted in the Rs 66.65 crore disproportionate assets case.
After big win in Bihar, the BJP is likely to push harder in Tamil Nadu, where the DMK government and the uneasy BJP-AIADMK alliance are preparing for a tense election filled with seat-sharing fights, changing alliances, and the unpredictable entry of Vijay's TVK party, predicts N Sathiya Moorthy.
The All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam general council meeting on Monday revived the general secretary post, and picked Edappadi K Palaniswami as the interim GS.
EPS' acceptance of Amit Shah's proposal for an electoral alliance with the BJP is being interpreted to mean how the AIADMK has signed up the NDA national leader as a junior partner. Not many have appreciated EPS for this strategic move that has now forced the BJP to play second fiddle to the AIADMK. This has meant that the BJP has buried its ambitions of capturing power in Tamil Nadu now, and is willing to wait until after the 2029 Lok Sabha polls, observes N Sathiya Moorthy.
While acknowledging that they needed strong allies for a chance in the assembly polls, AIADMK cadres seemingly prefer actor-politician Vijay's Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam to the BJP, owing to the latter's 'communal agenda' and consequent hardline Hindutva image, explains N Sathiya Moorthy.
'I wish him well in whatever he does and I will do so if he enters politics too.'
In more than one way, it's a setback for the DMK and Chief Minister Stalin in political terms. The electoral fall-out, if any, will have to wait until the next summer, only when assembly elections are due in the state, explains N Sathiya Moorthy.
If the DMK is able to sustain the momentum until the assembly polls, the AIADMK especially and the PMK and possibly the infant TVK too would find it hard to sign up with the BJP, explains N Sathiya Moorthy.
If the AIADMK falls short of the 117-mark required to form a government in the 234-member assembly, will it strike a post-poll deal to form Tamil Nadu's first coalition government? N Sathiyamorthy analyses.
The BJP and the AIADMK are unable to sort out ideological differences, observes N Sathiya Moorthy.
Having a young, untested leader makes sense for the Tamil Nadu BJP. But the new state president's immediate concern will be to gain acceptance within the state unit that is still in the grip of those with a strong RSS background, says N Sathiya Moorthy
The question wafting in the winds over the Vaigai riverbed is, has Karunanidhi's disgraced son accepted his fate? A Ganesh Nadar and Saisuresh Sivaswamy find out.
AIADMK's Jayalalithaa won three assembly by-elections from her hospital bed. However, the DMK heir's decision to disempower second-line satraps, who were running personal fiefdoms in their districts, and his fresh approach, could prove beneficial in the next polls, observes N Sathiya Moorthy.
The Karnataka government is divided over filing an appeal in the Supreme Court against the acquittal of former Tamil Nadu chief minister. N Sathiya Moorthy analyses the possibilities
Till he took over, political parties ferrying people to the polling stations was considered quite 'normal', and it was during Seshan's stint that it became impossible with the model code being made sacrosanct.
In focus are the assembly polls in 2026. From a BJP perspective, their attack on the ruling DMK, using the 'Hindutva' card, and Annamalai's targeting of both Dravidian majors on corruption has not worked, points out N Sathiya Moorthy.
Without strategising together, Jayalalithaa's successor, Chief Minister Edappadi K Palaniswami, and M Karunanidhi's son-cum-successor, M K Stalin, have used tough-talking on seat-sharing with allies, to replace charisma that they purportedly lacked, during the run-up to the assembly polls scheduled for April 6, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
The BJP game-plan: Take the top slot, or a close second, either for the 'Lotus' or the larger NDA, if it can and push the AIADMK to the third place, explains N Sathiya Moorthy.
'To them, the day may not be far off when the state BJP starts claiming and propagating that Modi is next only to AIADMK's late boss Jayalalithaa,' says N Sathiya Moorthy.
The AIADMK's staying power is not in question, but it has to regain the winning streak. That will require its leaders and leadership to re-wire themselves, to be able to re-think situations in ways different from what they had been accustomed to, suggests Sathiya Moorthy.
Indications are that the DMK combine will win more seats than the AIADMK and BJP, but is facing a tough fight in about half a dozen from the rest, predicts N Sathiya Moorthy of the electoral contest in Tamil Nadu.
'There is no evidence of newspapers and television channels ganging up to wage a coordinated war to expose the BSP, destroy the AIADMK, malign Kejriwal, discredit Lalu or defame Mamata.' 'But it's of interest that none of these exposes threatens the 12 states the BJP controls,' says Sunanda K Datta-Ray.
With the assembly polls only two years away, in 2026, any demoralising defeat in 2024, would challenge not only the party's continued relevance but also EPS's leadership, asserts N Sathiya Moorthy.
'The AIADMK has no Number Two, frankly it does not even have a Number Hundred and Two. There is the Numero Uno, and there is everybody else -- a point that was made very clear when Jayalalithaa made her ministers take the oath of office in unison on May 23. What, after all, was the point of having them do so individually when they lack individuality?'
The case of the two Shiv Sena factions for legitimacy and the party symbol, 'Bow and Arrow', is now before the Election Commission. Whichever way the EC findings go, the other can be expected to move the Supreme Court. They would need a final verdict before the parliamentary polls, points out N Sathiya Moorthy.
In Muthuvel Karunanidhi's passing, Tamil Nadu has lost the last of its Titans.
O Panneerselvam is the first chai-wallah to become chief minister in the country. Gujarat's Narendra Modi, the better-known chai-wallah to become chief minister, followed Paneerselvam around a fortnight later in 2001. The parallel should end there, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
The Tamil Nadu voter may not be in the mood to test new talent, not when the state and the people are going through unprecedented and unanticipated crises, of which coronavirus is only the first. All of it boils down to an election between the ruling AIADMK and the Opposition DMK next year, with small-timers, had-been parties and promised parties left on the sidelines, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
ndependent of the political fallout, which Stalin has sought to arrest through the withdrawal of the measures as fast as they were introduced, there are concerns about the way those decisions came to be taken, without adequate application of mind, not in official terms but in political and electoral contexts, points out N Sathiya Moorthy.
Assembly elections in Tamil Nadu are centred on chief ministerial candidates of rival parties. When Sasikala cannot contest even a panchayat election for six years after her release, even if she were to have sympathetic backers even among apolitical voters, she does not have any 'transferrable vote-bank' even otherwise for a chief minister candidate of her choice, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
There is a sudden realisation in party circles that prolonged court cases could damage its standing, both among the cadres and voters, observes N Sathiya Moorthy.
If something stands out in the one year since Jayalalithaa's passing, it would be her famed leadership qualities and her ability to reach out to the party and the people above the second line, and also the state administration, to the exclusion of all the rest. Only Indira Gandhi had achieved it all in her time, and no other leader, possibly excepting Prime Modi Modi, could hold a candle to that, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
By getting the Tamil Nadu assembly to act on his very imaginative public declaration to keep petro-chemical industries out of the Cauvery delta, which has traditionally been a DMK stronghold, Chief Minister Edappadi K Palaniswami has not only set the ball rolling for the assembly elections due a year later but also sent out a strong message to the BJP government at the Centre, which took a unilateral decision to exempt petro-complexes from environmental clearance, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
At the end of the day, Stalin expressing solidarity with an arrested colleague is one thing, especially if he too felt that the minister had been wronged, but for him to retain the person in office sets a bad precedent, which would not go unnoticed by voters, points out N Sathiya Moorthy.
The two rival factions of the AIADMK may have merged, but there are problems staring at it on all fronts -- governmental, political, electoral and organisational, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
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